Longevity Questions

The complexity of the task is determined by the number and depth of scientific questions that have not yet been resolved. From the general structure (one top-level question generates 20 questions at each subsequent level) with 9 nesting levels, the total number of questions is:
1 + 20 + 400 + 8000 + 160,000 + 3,200,000 + 64,000,000 + 1,280,000,000 + 25,600,000,000 ≈ 27,000,000,000 1 + 20 + 400 + 8000 + 160\,000 + 3\,200\,000 + 64\,000\,000 + 1\,280\,000\,000 + 25\,600\,000\,000 \approx 27\,000\,000\,0001+20+400+8000+160000+3200000+64000000+1280000000+25600000000≈27000000000
However, in practice, most of these questions have already been partially studied. According to rough estimates, at the moment the first 2-3 levels of questions (421 questions) have been fully covered. Questions of levels 4-6 (about 67 million) have been partially answered. Deep levels (7-9, more than 26 billion questions) have been practically not studied or have been poorly studied.
Thus, the real complexity of the problem lies approximately at levels 4-9, namely about 26 billion questions, most of which have no detailed answers.
Total complexity estimate:
~ 26 billion questions that require new answers or in-depth research to solve the problem of increasing life expectancy to 200 years.
Considering that many questions overlap, and the lower levels are mainly methodological and clarifying in nature, the actual number of unique unsolved problems is much smaller.
Let's estimate this reduction:
1. Overlapping topics:
On average, 80-90% of questions intersect or are partially duplicated when delving deeper.
2. Theoretical and methodological questions:
The lower levels (5 through 9) are mainly technical questions, many of which do not require fundamentally new discoveries, but only the selection or optimization of methods.
Thus, the total number of fundamentally new problems can be reduced by approximately 1,000-10,000 times.
Then the real number of fundamental, fundamentally important, unsolved scientific problems will be in the range from 2.6 million to 26 million.
The most realistic final estimate of complexity: about 10 million fundamental scientific questions that need to be answered to achieve an increase in life expectancy to 200 years.

The estimate of 10 million fundamental scientific questions is conditional and requires critical consideration from several sides:
Reasons why the estimate is overstated:
• Redundancy of questions: many detailed questions can be combined into one problem or a group of interrelated problems.
• Systems approach: with an integrated approach, solved questions at the top level automatically close many small technical and methodological questions at the bottom.
• Technological leaps: major breakthroughs dramatically reduce the number of problems (for example, the emergence of a new method can eliminate the need for thousands of small studies).
Reasons why the estimate may be understated:
• Hidden complexity: some questions that seem simple give rise to cascades of new deep problems.
• Unknown unknowns: Some fundamental mechanisms of aging have not yet been discovered or are misunderstood, so the number of questions may increase dramatically.
What is a fundamental scientific question?

Konstantin, [06.05.2025 19:24]
This is a question, the answer to which fundamentally changes our understanding and approach to solving a problem, opens up a new area of ​​research or allows us to solve a whole class of problems. Such questions require deep conceptual and experimental study, and not just technical refinement or optimization of already known methods.
Three most important fundamental questions on the path to extending life to 200 years:
1. What is the primary cause or critical “point of no return” in the aging process of biological systems?
The solution to this question will open the possibility of preventing or delaying aging, and not just eliminating its consequences.
2. How to completely control the mechanisms of regeneration and self-renewal of cells and tissues in an adult organism?
Understanding this question will allow us to maintain the organism in a functional “young” state for a long time.
3. How to maintain high precision of molecular processes in the cell (DNA repair, protein synthesis and degradation, control of epigenetic changes) for 200 years?
This will ensure the constancy and stability of the biological system at the molecular level, preventing the accumulation of damage and failures.
These three questions are fundamental, since their solution will radically change approaches to all aspects of aging and life extension. They directly affect many smaller questions, making their solution possible or impossible.